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Investors are unable to gauge the Nifty trends due to frequent market corrections in 2018 especially in the emerging Indian economy and financial markets with substantial erosion of wealth. There is no predicting where the Nifty is heading to or where it could stop.

What do market factors suggest?

In bull-markets large-caps tend to outperform over mid and small-caps. Hence since the financial year 2018, a bear and bullish market where market-breath on rallies is reduced appear to have emerged. In 2018 March the NIFTY breached the low of 9,950 and hit an all-time high of 11,760 on August 28th. Small-cap indices had lower tops as they peaked in 2018 January while a few large-cap stocks aided this high. 

Bull markets and scams are conjoint:

Often the bull markets are resultants of financial scams. 1992 April had Harshad Mehta using fraudulent means to use the banking channels to actively finance his playing the stock markets and led to the major crash of a bullish market. Ketan Parekh was instrumental in crashing the 98 to 2001 bull market with his being exposed late 2001. The crash of markets in 2008 was attributed to global factors which were also tainted and had a bull market prevailing.

In 2009 January Satyam Computers revealed Rs 14,000 crores fraudulent accounting practices by its founder. Again Punjab National Bank in January 2019 exposed the scam of Nirav Modi the diamantaire with a 260 crore scam in LOUs. This was also followed by the ILFS scam with a Rs 96,000 crore scam in defaulting dues which threatened to crash the economy itself.

Nifty will stop short of the 10,000:

Long-term data analytics of the stock market and trends show a major trend upset since 2018 September. The Nifty index appears to be headed downwards for the next couple of months and could be a result of the correction applied in 2018 January when the index stood at 11,761 points and not at the highest of 11,760 in August.

As in the parlance of Elliot Wave, the Nifty structure appears as with an expanded flat in the form of Wave B with three legs and a counter-trend rally. Nifty should rise to the top of the Wave-A followed by a rally in the ranges from 9,950 to 11,760 as in the Wave-B which will be predictably followed by Wave-C the disastrous ending. The value of the Expanded Flat is below the origin of Wave-B, and the corrections applied from the top of 11,760 are sufficient to predict a disaster in the nature of Wave-C.

9, 950 is the index value of the commencement of Wave B and hence suggest the Nifty will end at this level. Read with other corrections Nifty should pan out at 9,700. In parting, this prediction appears to be also influenced by the major event of Parliament election which could delay the movement by an additional 2 to 3 months. Do a remarkable course in data analytics course for financial analysts at Imarticus Learning to further understand financial trends.

 

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